Saturday, January 28, 2012

Oswalt

ESPN is reporting that Oswalt is going to going sign with the Cards "soon". Its not a done deal, but this shocks me personally. I figured the Red Sox would give him an offer he couldn't refuse. I can only guess that he is taking a short term deal (probably just one year) at not a ton of money in order to stay in NL. Obviously he has some serious health concerns with his back, but if he stays healthy this season.....wow. Carpenter-Wainwright-Oswalt-Garcia. That rotation is as good as anyone's, including the Phillies and Giants, health pending. I can only assume they will turn around and try and deal either Westbrooke or Lohse if this goes down. I have to hand in to Cards management/ownership. They clearly are trying to win over the next two years at least, even with Albert in L.A.




Trey

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Plan B

Well, now that the dust has settle a bit from Albert leaving, we can ask, what's next? Certainly, next year's team will feel very different with franchise icon's like Pujols and TRL gone, but it likely will still be the favorite to win the NL central and a real contender to win World Series #12. Here's the moves since Pujols left town so far:

Re-signed Furcal (2-years, 14 million total), re-signed Shumaker (2 years, 3 million total). Non-tendered Theriot. Punto, Dotel both signed to other teams.

I like, don't love resigning Furcal. Would rather it have been only one year with his injury history. Even last year, he was playing at way less than 100%. IF he can get healthy, he's a major plus compared to what we have had at shortstop the past few seasons, but that's a big if. On the other hand, Jimmy Rollins is the only other comparable guy out there, and he would've taken 4 years at 52-60 mil, so Furcal is a comparative bargain. Shumaker I am also OK with staying, assuming he is not a starter anymore. He hits righties well, but his lack of power and/or speed makes him below average on offense overall. He's become about average at 2B defensively, and is better than that in the outfield, but he works best as a back-up. They have the money to upgrade at 2B, so hopefully they will. Letting Theriot go is no surprise; he stunk last year. Punto had his moments, but Shumaker is basically the same guy as him. Dotel pitched great down the stretch, but with the glut of RH relief pitchers, he was expendable as well.

What's next?

The only serious rumor I've heard is signing J.C. Romero. He had a rough year last year, but should be a nice LOOGY and veteran presence in the pen. Right now, "scrabble" is the only LH reliever, and you'd like to see him used more than just situationally with his great stuff. As I said before, things look fine from the right side. Motte should close, with Salas as probably the main set-up guy. Lynn/Boggs/Sanchez should be the other guys. All those guys have great stuff. The pen could continue to be a great strength as it was down the stretch this year. One interesting guy to watch is McClellen. Assuming Wainwright is full go to start the season, there may not be room for Kyle on the roster. That would be a shame, as he has done a lot for us the past few seasons.

Where else should we spend, if anywhere?

2B would be my preference, but there is not a lot of options out there in FA. A trade may be in order instead, but I have no great ideas who to deal for. Another option is to go with maybe a Shumaker/Green platoon at 2B and try to get another OF since Craig may miss the beginning of the year. I'm not in favor of this because I'd like to see Craig play full-time. I suppose if they get a guy and can play CF and hits RH, then maybe you could platoon him with Jay when Craig gets healthy. It would also be nice to find some speed as far as that goes. We don't have a lot of that right now. All in all, I don't expect any huge move the rest of the offseason. If Romero does sign, the pitching staff is basically set and they likely need to add just one more bat. The upside of losing those FA's is that the Cards get the Angel's first round pick and three "sandwhich" picks meaning they will have 5 picks in the top 60 or so selections. That may allow them to upgrade the roster midseason if need be as they can re-stock the farm system quickly. Not the most exciting plan, but after the past couple of weeks, boring doesn't sound so bad to me.




Trey

Friday, December 09, 2011

Albert in the Birds on the Bat


Albert in the Birds on the Bat

The outlook seemed brilliant for the Cardinal winter meeting:
The bidders were down to three or two but their grasps ‘peared only fleeting.
And then when Reyes signed down South, and Bell did the same,
A sickly silence fell upon the fandom of “the Mang.”

Many stated coldly that the Redbirds should send him packing,
For, they thought, that Albert’s salary would only bring the team to lacking.
Others thought it would be worth the risk to put up more than that-
Put up more money to keep him wearing the Birds on the Bat.

Although his numbers had declined, yet so many records he could break,
It was history, loyalty, and home-team pride that was at stake;
Upon the stricken Cardinal-nation such ambiguity doth sat;
There was a divide among the faithful over the price of Albert’s bat.

The Marlins made an offer to the wonderment of all.
The Angels, the silent, had made no attempt so far this fall;
Then the cloud had lifted, and people saw what had occurred,
For the Fish had signed Buehrle thus no longer could afford.

From millions of throats and more there rose a lusty yell;
It rumbled through the archway, it rattled through Foristell;
It knocked over the Rocky Mountains and beyond way more than that.
For Albert, so it seemed, would again wear the Birds on the Bat.

Throughout the years Pujols stated that St. Louis was his place;
That this is where Albert wanted to always keep his space.
And when money had been mentioned, he almost always spat-
"There’s more to me than money; there’s more to me than that."

Whether at home or on the road thousands would cheer him and stand;
He rarely failed to disappoint the 46,861 who were on hand.
For it can never be said that what he gave wasn’t surely worth the trip,
And whether he stayed or went, for this may our hat we will always tip.

Looking back we can remember his many fantastic years,
Killing Cubs, whipping the Astros, demolishing any thrown spheres.
Always close by LaRussa’s lips many complements would shed,
“He’s the greatest I’ve ever coached,” the manager had said.

From off the pitch of Lidge in October two-thousand and five;
His bat did so much damage it made us fans alive.
Thanksgiving for two-thousand eleven and don’t forget Oh-6.
His play was always exciting and we were always in the mix.

With a smile of Christian charity great Albert always shone;
And he practiced so relentlessly so his craft he could always hone.
He tortured opposing pitching, and although allegations flew,
He stands as one who played the game clean, truly through and through.

But now the faithful hear of what had been some debate;
A mystery team also had put an offer upon Albert’s plate.
They say Albert’s face grew stern and cold, they said his muscles did strain,
As he pondered a deal that may not come by his way again.

The Angels, now revealed from secrecy, had offered him so much,
A deal so great it would have made Solomon to blush.
And now the Angels held the deal, and how they let it show,
That the baseball world was duly stunned by the amount of Angel dough.

Oh, sometime in the future, the sun will again shine bright;
Sometime the Cardinals will be winning, and everything will be alright,
And sometime we’ll again be laughing, with cheering and a shout;
But today, there is no joy in St. Louis – mighty Albert has walked out. 

-CJ (Obviously based upon "Casey at the Bat" by Ernest Thayer.)

Thursday, December 08, 2011

No news=good news?

24 hours ago, it seemed like there was a good chance Pujols was headed to Miami. Now, there is almost no chance of that, but there also seems to be little chance that he will sign with anyone this week during the Winter Meetings. Now, the bad news. As John covered in two earlier posts, the Angels are a team that makes a lot of sense for Pujols to potentially join. Also in an earlier post, John reported that they did not intend to bid for him. Well, that seems to have changed. I feel that their offer would have to be at least 1 mil per year more than the Cards for him to consider it, but there is a good possibility they will exceed that threshold. The fact that no deal with anyone appears immanent says to me that Pujols has not come close to the numbers he wants. The good news then is that probably no one has significantly out-bid the Cardinals, and at this point, it's likely no one will. If the bids are fairly equal, then I think he stays, and I do think that is the likely outcome at this point. 24 hours ago with the suddenly loose-purse Marlins in the picture, I wasn't so sure. Now is keeping Albert into his 40s a good idea for anyone? That's a topic for another day. Keeping a icon in St. Louis? That's always a good idea.



Trey

Friday, November 18, 2011

Darth Selig


Minute Maid field, park, stadium--whatever--has always been a joke of a stadium and I have always hated to see games played there. Although I feel the Cards won there more often then not (I could be completely wrong, but I can't be bothered to look atm) it was more of an annoying obstacle course. Crawford boxes jutting out. Poles and hills butting in. The dangerous right field line (yes, I know it's not too dissimilar from Busch III). Praise the Lord the Astros are moving in 2013! Although I'll miss the rivalry with the Astros it's about the same as I'd miss the Pirates leaving. I think balancing out the leagues is good for baseball. I makes sense. It didn't make sense to change things before.

That said, I'm not sure I like the other change--or why it was even required. I'm not sure I even understand the logic. We still have two leagues with three divisions each, yes? So, why do we need another wild card. Before us stands the debate: the excitement of playoffs with wild cards (what kind of hypocrite would I be if I denied us this last season and post-season?) vs. the reward for winning the league in the marathon. Another wild card DOES water things down--you can't deny that. But you can't deny the excitement that more teams provide. Would you have wanted to watch the Phillies play the Yankees? Maybe, but more are included--and that sells. Currently I believe that it's watered down enough--it's not a stodgy Murphy's Irish Stout, but lets not turn it into Keystone Light please!

There are worries that the symmetry will lead to other changes that will make the leagues more similar--like the elimination of the DH--something that I am DRAMATICALLY opposed to. The fear is that with more interleague play (a feature that comes with equal 15 team leagues) will come more use of the American League pitcher with a bat in his hand--an image that conjures up images of Bugs Bunny striking out the side with one pitch as the Gas House Gorillas flail at the ball. Such a fear may indeed lean toward the universal use of a DH. The import of such a decision is well chronicled and I wholly am opposed to such a flat and droll game. We'll call it the "checker effect"--the reason more people play checkers than chess is simplicity and not because checkers is a superior game. "Let the fools have their tar-tar sauce," he seemed to say. Such a change would be worse (by far) then the NFL's decision to change the placement of the kickoff--which has grossly dumbed down the game as well.


"This deal is getting worse all the time" and I fear what changes Selig will make next.

-CJ

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Great News!

http://eye-on-baseball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/33247619

The Angels said they won't aggressively pursue Fielder or Pujols. It's going to take an aggressive bid to take Pujols from St. Louis and I believe that the Angels were the biggest threat.

In different news the Marlins gave Pujols a substantial offer (according to Ken R.'s tweet). Pujols may enjoy being Miami--who wouldn't. Career-wise this is a stupid move.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Where Pujols Goes

Post after post have been made seeming stymied at the thought of where Pujols will be going next season. But in actual fact it's really very simple. Taking a page from Dan at C70 and Bernie Miklasz, let's be explicit. There are several factors to consider. First, the obvious, money, position availability, winnability and legacy, and misc (e.g., location, teammates, history).

There's 30 teams in baseball--so let's eliminate them by groups to start.

-POSITION AVAILABILITY: Let's start with those who already have a big name 1B locked up on the roster even if they could afford him.
1. Nationals (LaRoche)
2. Red Sox (Youkilis/Gonzalez)
3. Reds (Votto)
4. Rockies (Helton)
5. Tigers (Cabrera)
6. Twins (Morneau)
7. White Sox (Konerko/Dunn)
8. Yankees (Teixeira)*
9. Giants (Huff)
10. Phillies (Howard)


-MONEY: Those who simply can't afford him.
11. Astros (whose new ownership has tightened the belt)
12. Athletics
13. Brewers
14. Diamondbacks
15. Dodgers (extreme financial hardship)
16. Mets (see Dodgers)
17. Orioles
18. Padres
19. Pirates
20. Rays
21. Braves (They could do it, but it would cripple the budget minded team).

BAM! Over 2/3rds of the teams are down.

-Winnability and Legacy: Pujols has said that he wants to play for a contender. Now, if we are even remotely optimistic that this means money isn't absolutely everything to Pujols, then we can eliminate teams that signing Pujols would probably weaken the overall team because of lack of depth at other positions. Furthermore, Pujols has the opportunity to build upon his legacy. If we assume he isn't completely aware of his potential he would want to put himself in a position to be as great as possible. This would eliminate several teams.

22. Royals (It's hilarious they aren't in the last category. But as Bernie pointed out they technically have the money to pull this off--Pujols would be close to home and as others have pointed out they have the farm to support. But it would still be a super long-shot and Pujols probably won't be tempted by that from a legacy stand-point.
23. Blue Jays (They could do it like the Royals and they have a higher ceiling money-wise, but they don't have the farm the Royals do.)
24. Indians (many people have dismissed them because of their super-low payroll. But look at the past few years--it has declined to an ultra-low rate--almost as if they've been preparing for a super-move like this. However, Pujols won't position himself in a place where he will go the way of Jayson Werth--mired as the one big name on a team with no chance).
25. Marlins (Pujols won't want to go to a place with a competitive method like the Marlins--it's legacy suicide. Don't believe me, what are the Marlins called? And after 9PM EST tonight? Yeah, see?).
26. Cubs (This would embitter him to so many it simply doesn't make sense. Sure, it's possible but with how things are simply not stable there at the moment I don't see it happening. Theo could want to make a big hit, but Pujols is particular about managers and whoever they get may not be workable for him. Furthermore, if he believes they aren't winners he might side-step that whole thing. Another thing, he's seen how they've treated the likes of Soriano and other big pay players who don't turn out well).
27. Mariners (if the offer was off the charts it might be too hard to pass up--but it would have to be significantly more than other suitors' bids. The Mariners have more pieces than other teams, but location-wise it is not preferable, it's a pitcher's park, and the Mariner's are pretty much division cellar-dwellers).
28. Rangers (they could make room, they have the payroll, and Pujols perhaps would want to play in conservative Texas alongside like-minded Josh Hamilton. However, they could have been placed into the "don't need a 1b" category with the guys they have that can play that position. However, with the dh you never know. Yet, what they NEED is pitching)

-Contenders--These are the only teams that have any real chance.

-Angels--Winners, have $, have a great manager, but are West Coast.

*-Yanks--They are always in the running. With the dh, who knows, less likely with Teix but I wouldn't rule them out completely

-Cards--Legacy, winnability (less likely the bigger his contract is), beloved by fans, his home is there, manager will probably be someone he knows and who knows him.

In the end the Angels have the upperhand when it comes to money (and maybe a slight edge in long term winnability--but not short term). But that's it! Every other factor says to stay. Unless the Angels can make the most epic of offers, this is a no decision for both Pujols and Cards management. The amount of money he'll bring in while breaking records in the long-term may actually overcome many of the short comings should the end of his contract become an albatross. If you pay him, they will come. (BTW To compare this to Joe Mauer is laughable.)

I fully expect Pujols to be a Cardinal for the remainder of his career and I expect it to be to the tune of $225M for 10 years.

-CJ

P.S. Lesson for the day: don't do a post in the middle of the night halfway, save it, and then try to finish it up the next. Thanks to Ryan at http://analysisaroundthehorn.blogspot.com/ for picking up the slack and catching my many errors.

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