Friday, July 23, 2010

Oswalt? Really?

In my last post, I opined that the Cards wouldn't/couldn't acquire Roy Oswalt from the Astros. Well, seems I may have been wrong, as most experts seem to think the Cards are the front runners to get him. Just now, a report came out in Houston that Oswalt has ceased his demand that any team that acquires him pick-up his 2012 option (for 16 mil). If he like the situation he is going to that is. Fortunately, he has made it well-known he likes the situation in St. Louis. This was a big deal, because the Cards need to free-up as much money as possible for 2012 with Albert a free-agent-to-be then. The question remains though, is it really a good idea to get Oswalt? Obviously, this signals to me that the team has given up on Brad Penny this season. Oswalt would cost about twice as much as Penny next year, but that seems doable I guess for one year, especially if maybe Ludwick can be moved in the offseason. We'd have a rotation up there with the Yankees, both in ability and cost. It would basically assure another year of fringe major-leaguers and utility men populating the infield and bench, but I suppose we can deal with that also. Hasn't been all bad this year. Anyway, assuming we do make the postseason, with that rotation, we'd be the NL favorites, hands down. Think of it. Oswalt would be, at best, our #3 starter. That's pretty sick. Wainwright, Carp, Oswalt, Garcia in the postseason. Awesome for sure. The other question, besides the financial one, is who would it cost us in terms of personal? I'm guessing a Stavinoha/Allen Craig type plus 2-3 mid minors studs. The speculation centers around Shelby Miller of course, who is the #1 pitching prospect in the system. He's still only like 19, so he wouldn't pitch for us until late 2011, at best I would think. Most team are hesitant to give up a potential ace like Miller, but with him pretty far away from the majors, the Cards might be thinking they'd rather strike while the iron is hot with Carpenter/Wainwright/Pujols/Holliday in their prime. In the end, you'd have to trade the future ace for a World Series win (or two), but there is no guarantee that would be the result, even with that stacked starting pitching. It's a tough call. A week ago, I was dead-set against it, but now I'm starting to come around. I guess my faith in management was restored by the long winning streak. BTW, you should be able to catch the Cards on national TV against the Cubs both tommorrow (on Fox) and Sunday (on ESPN). Hopefully, the bats will wake back up after the last two days!


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The Cardinals aren't trying to get Roy. He is a decoy. They know that Houston isn't going to let him loose in the central. They are just playing it up to encourage inquires on Penny. They are trying to shop Penny on a salary bail and prospects under the guise of a pitching glut and/or payroll management to deal with RO's salary. In the end, he will of course go to one of the money teams who are just watching the show at this point. Penny's call for an independent medical evaluation was to discourage this very move. He has control of his contract after the 31st, knowing that the Cardinals will need to use him in a manner that will look favorable in attracting bidders for his 2011 F/Agency. They delayed Lohse's reentry till just the right time. He was ready 2 weeks ago..........those are the facts.