Good ole days?

After going with a very young and inexperienced bench/back end of the rotation for several weeks, the Cards have recently brought-in several veterens. Jeff Suppan is the latest addition to go along with Randy Winn and Aaron Miles. LaRussa has long-favored having a veteran-heavy team, so this isn't a big surprise for me, but it is also a questionable decision in my opinion. Here are my reasons:

1. There's a reason these players were available. All three are past their prime, and stuggled mightily this year. Granted, we aren't going to count on any of them (except perhaps Suppan) for major contributions, but I'm not sure they will be able to give us even a minor boost.

2. John Jay deserved to be there. He showed great power and even better defense in the limited time he had. Personally, I thought it was great to have a power left-handed bat off the bench. He also showed he had the best outfield arm of anyone on the team this year, making him a nice substitute for Rasmus late in games.

3. Versatility is over-rated. Both Winn and Miles are switch-hitters, which makes subtitutions and pinch-hitting easier for LaRussa. Well, if neither of them can really hit for either side, what good does that really do? I think having Jay, Stavinoha and Lopez (who is also a switch-hitter) as the primary guys off the bench was a lot more dangerous.

The Suppan pick-up bothers me the least. We need at least a stop-gap until Penny returns, and Walters/Hawkesworth have not shown anything good so far. Suppan almost has to be better than them. If he works out, he may end-up being the permanent fill-in for Lohse. No one seems to know when either Penny or Lohse will be back. Penny's injury was supposed to be minor, but he's been out a month now. Lohse seems likely to miss most, if not all, of the rest of season.

Anyway, the bottom line is that this is now an older team, but one LaRussa is probably more comfortable with. Most other teams in MLB are trying to get younger, so we'll see which approach is the wise one as the season wears on.

-Trey

Cards After Memorial Day

So, obviously, things aren't quite as rosy as when I analyzed the team at the end of the first month of the season. Still, after losing to the Reds in a tough game tonight, the Cards are only a game out of first. Here's how I grade the month of May:

Offense: C+

The struggles of the offense have gotten a lot of attention in the press, and rightfully so, but they haven't been the only issue. Even Albert seemed to go through a mini slump. A bigger problem has been Matt Holiday and Colby Rasmus. They got off to a good start in April, but really struggled in May. Fortunately, both have shown signs of life the last week or so. The middle infielders have continued to be pretty bad, though actually better than in April. David Freese continues to be a big-time bright spot. You have to think that this line-up is too talented to not put together a big hot streak soon. At least I hope so.

Starting Pitching: A-

Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia. You can't ask for anything more from those three. Lohse is now hurt, but it's hard to say if that's a bad thing or not, because he was terrible all year. He had surgery on his forearm last week, so it seems like he'll be out for a while. Penny continued to pitch pretty well despite taking a few loses. He is on the DL also, but hopefully not for long. It will be tough if we have to continue filling two spots with minor leaguers. Anyway, the starters have held us afloat so far, and it's time for the line-up to do their part.

Bullpen: A

This has continued to be a surprise for me. Franklin has been great, but the primary middle relievers have been awesome also. Motte and McClellen have been great from the right side, and Reyes (well, until tonight) and Miller very good from the left. Hawkesworth and Boggs have struggled at times, but we are less reliant on them. Really, I don't think we can ask for much more in terms of pitching overall. The Cards (at least going into tonight), were first in team ERA in NL. They aren't best in runs allowed though because.......

Defense: D

I might actually be giving a generous grade here. The defense was great the first month, but has been horrible the second. The Cards have fallen from the top the NL in most defensive categories to the middle of the pack. They had allowed 27 unearned runs on the season, tied for second worst in the NL with the Cubs. I was surprised that the Dodgers have actually been worse in this category, because I didn't think that was possible. Shu, Ryan, and Freese have made at least 7 errors each. Poor Ryan seemed to carry his struggles at the plate into the field for a while, and he is usually among the best defensive shortstops around, so that was too bad. Rasmus has really had a hard time in center as well, especially throwing. This has led to John Jay and even Ludwick getting a lot time in centerfield, especially late in games. Really, only Holiday, Molina and Pujols have been themselves in the field. Again, it seems players can carry their struggles at the plate out onto the field, so hopefully the defense will improve with the offense.

Final thoughts:

It was a rough month, but the everyday players seem to be playing better the last week. LaRussa seems maybe convinced to not tinker so much (though we know he will still tinker some!) and let the guys play themselves out of their funk. Hopefully, Penny is back soon to solidify the rotation. Even if Lohse is out the rest of the year, we can win a lot of games with the other four starters. The key is the offense, especially Holiday and Rasmus. If they can hit, we will be golden. I would be a shame to waste all this great pitching, that's for sure!

-Trey

Progressive Game Blog-5th Inning

We'll take the ball from PHE as the Cardinals are down in the hole after a 3 run 4th by the Cubs.

Top 5th

1. Rasmus leads off the inning. He couldn't get the bat off the shoulder last AB, and this time he collects the whole set by striking out swinging.

Silva has been dealing.

2. Freese gets caught looking. Silva is filthy today. He's mowing them down faster than I can type. I was going to talk about "when is Freese going to get some RotY" talk, but I'll save that for a time when he actually swings the bat.

3. Molina quickly falls behind 0-2, takes a ball outside, and then pathetically swings at ball two. I mean, this has been happening so much. We're helping out pitchers by swinging at stuff way outside--not that Silva currently needs any help.

9 Ks through 5 innnings--ouch. I always get hosed on my innings in our progressive game blogs.

Bottom 5th

Adam-O looks to right the ship after giving up the lead in the 4th. Sure could have been a massively different inning if they caught Soriano. They might have.

1. Fukudome starts things out with a leadoff walk. Adam-O has been falling behind many batters. Not surprising for a major league debut. I'm pretty happy with the start from him overall. Not sure you could expect much more.

2. Schu boots a sure-fire 4-6-3 (in fairness he was shielded by the 2nd base ump), to put Theriot on first with no outs.

3. Schu comes correct with a completed 4-6-3 as Lee hit is hard to 2nd.

4. Adam-O quickly, for a change, gets ahead of Soriano and gets him swinging .

Adam-O does well to work around the error and walk.

Well, that does it for me, I'll pass it on to Redbird Rants.

-CJ

P.S. Get Smoltz--yesterday!

P.S.S. I usually watch games that Tim and Joe do with the sound off. :)

Progressive Game Blog today

The Cardinal's offense seems to have awakened just in time for the UCB's annual progressive game blog. Here's this year's order:

Pre-Game: United Cardinal Bloggers

First: Baseball Digest

Second: Fungoes

Third: Stan Musial's Stance

Fourth: Pitchers Hit Eighth

Fifth: The Cardinal Virtue

Sixth: Redbird Rants

Seventh: Cardinal Diamond Diaries

Eighth: Intangiball

Ninth: C70 At The Bat

Extras/Wrap-up: Fredbird Follys

As you can see, our own John will be handling the fifth inning, so come back later to check it out!

-Trey

First Month Analysis

Yeah, technically we are a couple of days into the second month, but since the season didn't start till April 4th, I figured I'd wait till now for this analysis. The Cards are obviously off to a great start at 16-8. Remember though we had a similar first month last year before having a tougher May and June. You'd have to think that won't happen this year though. Here's why along with my grades for the team's performance so far:

Starting Pitching: A

An "A" might be a little low actually, but I have to penalize Kyle Lohse a little. Lohse has actually looked better his last couple of starts which is scary, because the other fours guys have been sick. Wainwright looks like he wants to make sure there is no doubt about the Cy Young this year. Penny has replaced Pineiro and then some. Carp wasn't real sharp his first couple of starts, but has been dominate since. The real revelation has been Garcia though. Has already probably given us more quality starts out the five hole than we had all of last year while adding a lefty to the equation. Can he keep it up once the league scouts him a little better? Tough to say for sure, but I love the kid's stuff and composure out there..

Bullpen: B+

This was the area we were all concerned about, as it seemed a lot of the guys pitched over their heads last year. So far.....they've continued to. Franklin in particular has continued to nail down saves. Maybe its time to stop doubting him? I've also been impressed with Motte. If anything, he looks better than last year. Actually, I really like our middle relief with Reyes and Miller from the left and Hawkesworth, Motte, and McClellen for the right. Overall, the Cardinals lead the National League with a 2.67 team ERA. Wow.

Offense: B

The batting average is pretty low, but the team is hitting for a lot of power, and taking walks a little more frequently than last year, so right now, we are scoring just enough runs. The middle infield has been the big problem offensively. Shu is at .216 and Ryan .182. Felipe Lopez was hitting well when he played, but he's on the DL right now. The outfield has been good with Colby Rasmus looking like the stud we'd hoped he would be. Holliday and Ludwick have been solid if not spectacular. Freese has been better than I'd expected at 3B, giving us a big boost over what we got over there last season. Molina and Pujols have been themselves. Again, we've scored enough runs so far, but can do a lot better if we get anything at all out of the middle infield guys.

Defense: A

This was actually a concern for me. Didn't know what to expect out of Freese for instance. He had a rough first week, but has been great since then. The Cardinals are first in NL in fielding percentage, put-outs and assists. Only one error from the outfield, but only three assists out there also. Overall, you'd have to say that a big reason the pitching has been so good is that the defense has more than held their end.

Overall, you'd have to say that the pitching may take a little dip as we move through the season, but offense should pick-up the slack. Can we continue to win 2 out of every 3? Probably not, but I think we'll come close. The rest of the NL central is even worse than I though it would be, so I think we have real good chance at 100 wins this season.

-Trey

It's Good to be Right...

I don't have much time to do a proper write up. However, 4 starts, 3 wins, and a tiny ERA later, I will begin to toot my own horn for Penny. I noted some time ago that he would be an excellent addition under DD...I noted it even before he went to the Sox. And when he was let go by the Sox I wanted him then. So, yeah, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn, or something like that.

And then our own Trey was excited about the Penny signing--while others moaned. Now Penny is pitching lights out. The only downside of that is if he's a Type A at the end of the season (I still doubt that) then we can't offer him arbitration--and I think that means no supplementary draft picks. Correct me if I'm wrong. However, if we get Type A FA stuff outta him this year...then I'll say he was well worth the cash.

-CJ

Epic

I'm sure many of you are aware of the 20 inning game the Cards played against the Mets last night that ended in a 2-1 loss. TRL and most of the players talked afterward about how proud they were to have played in such a game and of the heart the whole team showed despite the loss. I echo those sentiments, but I do have one minor quibble with the game. What was TRL thinking with the double switch that took Holliday out and left the pitcher batting behind Pujols? I'm not too mad about taking Holliday out per se. He's been ill and clearly struggling on this homestand, but I did not like the double switch. This gave the Mets the opportunity to twice intentionally walk Pujols in extra innings with runners on. It was no decision at all for them really, as they got to face a pitcher instead. Allen Craig is no Holliday, but he would have at least made them think about it. Considering Albert got a hit the two times he was pitched to in extras, it's reasonable to assume he would have won the game for us in one of those earlier opportunities if he had had the chance. Sometimes TRL falls a little too much in love with the double switch, and this was one of those times. A great game for sure, but one I would rather have won.

-Trey

Quick Thoughts

• TLR says that he isn't worried about Carp. Hmmm...that helps--a bit.
• I really enjoyed the 5-0 shut out last night. But we SHOULD have scored way more. Holliday had a couple of opportunities but left men on. We also made several silly base-running errors: Wainwright trying to advance, Rasmus, trying to steal, Luds trying to advance on the throw.
• The early Skippy haters (and there were lots this season) have been shut down. It's ridiculous to get worked up over two games and Spring training.
• We could easily be undefeated thus far. It's too bad Penny couldn't get the win before. I'm really excited to see if he can bring some of the same stuff.

-CJ

Comeback Cards

Yeah I know, before you say anything, I know I forgot to finish the season preview. I'll still try and get to it at some point. I think. Anyway, exciting game tonight. Cards score two in the top of the ninth by the surprising way of a Nick Stavinoha pinch-hit two-run home run. Perhaps more importantly, the bullpen actually did well after some real struggles in the first series. Hawkesworth and Reyes each pitched a scoreless inning following a not quite stellar start by Lohse. Franklin got the save with a scoreless bottom of the ninth. Certainly it seems that the offense could be MUCH better than last year based on the first few games, and hopefully the starting pitching will be at least as good, but the bullpen is where the few questions we have lie. Tonight was definitely a nice step in the right direction. The Cards close this series against the Brew Crew before their first homestand of the year starts on Monday by playing on Sunday night baseball, so I am looking forward to seeing them live for the first time then. Carp starts I believe, so should be good times!

-Trey

A Penny Saved...

...would be a Win earned. But it wasn't a save situation and we lost. So...ahmmm so much for wit. Talk about your winnable games. Penny turned in a fairly strong performance. Bronson stymied Cardinals' bats for much of the night (my night your day). And Motte comes on and pitches much like he did on opening day. Eeesh. That bullpen of ours which was lookin' poor on paper to enter the season is now lookin' paper thin. Who can you trust?

BTW, I've been forced, thanks to ESPN America, to watch American League games and man...those are boring. No switches. So little strategy. What do AL managers actually do again?

-CJ

A FRANKlin Discussion

I've never wanted to have one of those blogs that boohoos a team when they're winning. And I don't plan to start now. Furthermore, it's not right to freak out after only two games. However, when there was a pattern from last year that might be being carried over to this year, it's not unfair to raise the eyebrows.

Perhaps the most disconcerting thing is Franklin's play over the last two games. In fact, his overall performance reminds me of Izzy before his "injury." If you recall, Izzy had several games where he was still picking up saves but he was getting hit hard. Fortunately for those games, and for us last night those balls were hit right at defenders. But just like Izzy's liners, if Franklin continues to miss his spots those hard hit balls will eventually find holes. I really liked TLR using the opportunity on opening day to get a look at Franklin. And I hope that Franklin gets back to his early 2009 season form--but I have to admit to being worried.

Another concern is swinging at balls way outside. Several folks looked committed to swinging--and these were at pitches that looked bad coming out of the hand. Admittedly, I didn't have a view behind homeplate but the swings I'm talking about didn't exactly have deceiving action on them. Yadier, Ryan, and even Pujols. I'm going to keep an eye out for it. I just don't understand why they're pressing against such an underwhelming offense like the Reds.

All in all, we've got the brooms in hand, and the real test begins as we delve into the deeps that is 3-4-5 of the rotation. I mean, common, you expect to win with Carp and Waino, don't ya?

-CJ

Just noticed this post after I made mine. http://www.pitchershiteighth.com/2010/04/08/redbird-reveille-frankhausen-ball-busch-free-parking-jaime-garcia/

Happy Opening Day!

A lot to talk about! 4-5 with two HRs for Pujols. IBB in front of Molina and he rips a GS! Franklin didn't look good though...
Anyhow, it's a good start to the season overall. My daughter yelling: "Go Skippy!" Too bad he went 0fer with an E.
-CJ

NL East Preview

Alright, this should be an interesting division. The Phillies are obviously the favorite, but the Braves have looked really good this spring, and the Mets almost have to be much better than last year. Here's how I think it will shape-up:

1. Phillies. They look like not only the best team in the division, but in the entire NL at this point. Polanco upgrades what was the only hole in the line-up as the new 3B, so they will score a ton of runs. It's downright scary to think about what Halladay could do in the NL even in that tough bullpark they play in. Should get 20 wins easy and we could see 25 for the first time who knows how long. This team is not without it's question marks though. It starts in the bullpen where it looks like Lidge won't be ready to start the season and even then, will he ever be ready to close again. Madsen is solid, but seems more suited for set-up than closer. No help at all from the left side in the pen if JC Romero can't bounce back. The other big question is Cole Hamels. He carried them two years ago, but was a shell of that last year. In my opinion, he is more important for them than Lidge. With their line-up, two top starters makes them almost impossible to beat in the postseason. If he could've been great last year for instance, I think they probably beat the Yankees for two in a row. Even if Hamels is ordinary again, they will make the playoffs, but they need him at his best once they get there.

2. Braves. This is the team everyone is talking about this spring. The biggest reason for that is 20 year-old right fielder Jason Heyward. He has been annointed the next superstar, and I have to agree with that from what I have seen. He has all the physical tools you could want, but has also shown incredibly rare plate discipline for his age. The Braves did the smart thing and made him an immediate starter rather than send him down for a month to slow his arbitration clock like most teams do with young studs. There is no question they are a better team with him playing right now. Probably of more importance than Heyward for this team though is it's pitching depth. They have a potentially great starting rotation with Lowe/Jurrjeans/Hudson/Hanson. Hudson is the key. He has looked good though at the end of last year and this spring coming back from elbow surgery. They lost their top two relievers from last year, but their pen should actually be better with Billy Wagner closing now. Man I wanted the Cardinals to signs him. Oh well. I think this is the NL wildcard this year, and if the Phillis slip up any, they could easily win the division.

3. Mets. This team had about as bad of luck over the course of a season as any I can remember last year. They almost have to have better health this year, and should be a winning team again, but they just don't have the pitching depth to stay with the Phillies and Braves. The offense should be better. Looks like Reyes will be back sooner rather than later and Beltan maybe in early May. Jason Bay will help, but they obviously need David Wright to hit for power again as well. K-Rod is solid at the end of the pen and I think the middle relief is probably a lot better than they showed last year, but were just exposed by the poor starting pitching. There lies the rub. Outside of Santana, every other rotation spot is a huge question mark. I think it has to be better than last year, but still nowhere good enough for Mets fans.

4. Marlins. This team is definitely a wildcard now that it seems they may spend some money. They have some good young starting pitching, and one of baseball's top everyday players in Hanley Rameriz. The bullpen is a real problem, with literally no proven performers out there. The line-up also doesn't seem to have the thump it did a couple of years ago. In two years, if they keep locking-up their guys, they could be a threat again, but probably not this year.

5. Nationals. Another team in this division that almost has to be bettter than last year. At least they have some hope with Steven Stausborg, who looks like every bit the real-deal pitcher Jayson Heyward is as a hitter for the Braves. They also made the right move for their team sending him down to start this year, as this team is obviously still a ways away from winning. Still, they are at least starting to put some pieces together with Zimmerman, Niger Morgan and some other young talents. Hope is a place to start.


Alright, later today I'll get to the NL central. I promise!



-Trey

American League Preview

Well, I'm a day late and a dollar short with this, but I'm trying to get back into blogging, so here goes. I'll try and get to the NL East later tonight, but for now we'll focus on the "Junior" circuit.

AL East:

Predicted finishing order:

1. Yankees

2. Red Sox*

3. Rays

4. Orioles

5. Blue Jays

*Wild Card team

Analysis: It would be pretty surprising for the Yanks to not win the division again. They probably don't have quite the offensive firepower they did last year, but the rotation should be stronger with Vazquez and Hughes at the back end and they should definitely be better in the outfield defensively. The Red Sox also look to have improved defensively and in the starting rotation. Their line-up is not as strong as previous years though, so I think they are destined for the wild-card. They'll be a tough out in the postseason though with their pitching. The poor Rays very well may be the third best team in the American league this year, but that also means third best in this division. Their starters are probably right there with the Sox and Yanks, but they just don't have the depth. Any injuries, and they'll fall out the race quickly. The Orioles and Jays are both basically in rebuilding mode. The Orioles picked-up enough veterans in the off-season though that I think they avoid finishing last again.

AL Central

1. Twins

2. White Sox

3. Tigers

4. Indians

5. Royals

Losing Nathan was a big blow for the Twins. I know stat geeks say closers are overrated, but Nathan was one of only a handful of feared, elite shut-down guys in all of baseball. That being said, these guys always seem to find a way, and both the everyday line-up and rotation look stronger than last year, which should compensate for Nathan's loss. The White Sox also look to have a strong rotation, but are very young most everywhere else. I just don't see them having enough offense to stay with the Twins over the long haul. The Tigers have a lot questions, primarily the rotation after Verlander and Porcello. The bullpen also needs to be much better than last year. Valverde will help greatly, but Zumaiya needs to return to form as well. They have a ton of talent though, and could easily challenge the Twins with the right breaks going there way. The Indians should be better than last year, but are a couple of years away from being back in contention. The Royals, on the other hand, should easily be the worst team in the AL and maybe in all of baseball and have little hope for the future beyond Greinke.

AL West

1. Angels

2. Mariners

3. Rangers

4. A's

For the first time in a while, this division should be interesting. A lot of people are picking the Mariners, but I don't see it. Sure, they have arguably baseball's best 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation in King Felix and Cliff Lee. They should be great defensively and their bullpen is underrated. Scoring runs? That could be a problem. If you are relying on Milton Bradley to be your big bat, that's not good. Therefore, I like the Angels to prevail again ultimately in what should be a much tighter race. The Angels have no true ace, but 5 very good starters. They have no superstar in the line-up, but it's solid from top to bottom. Their bullpen is one area that should be improved this year with the addition of Rodney and the return of Shields. In other words, they are a team of no great strengths, but no real weaknesses either. The Rangers are another team that could challenge them, but consistent pitching is tough for them to find in that offensive ballpark. I think next year might be their year though because they have maybe the best young talent in baseball. The A's look to be the odd team out, but they too should be improved and will factor into the race but giving the other three teams a tougher time then last year. Like I said, and much more interesting division than in previous years where the Angels were just so much better than everyone else.

That's it for the AL. Obviously, I see it holding to form from last year, but I think the races will all be close. The East has the three best teams. Nathan's injury makes the Central wide open and the rest of the West has definitely closed the gap on the Angels.

Trey

Looks like a done deal

Pretty much official that Holliday will re-sign this week. I got the annual figure about right at 17.5 mil per, but the deal has an extra year added onto it compared to what I would like at seven. Hard to predict what a player will be like even two years from now, much less seven, but oh well. I don't love the terms of the deal, but don't hate them either. I think in a better economy, certainly Holliday would'be gotten more, so I suppose you'd have to count us a little lucky in the end. It will be interesting to see whom the Cards get the to fill-in the infield now. The rest of the team seems pretty set, though I guess maybe a right-handed reliever might be looked at as well.

-Trey

A Holliday for the Holidays?

Lots of rumors swirling right now that the Cards are close to signing Matt Holliday. I've heard anywhere from 5 years, 80 mil to 8 for 140 mil. I certainly hope it's closer to the former, but I can't imagine Boras settling for a contract less than 100 mil in total. Bay signing with the Mets seems to have set things in the motion as it both set the market and eliminated a potential major bidder. My personal preference would be six years, 102 million (17.5 per year). Anything more, and I think we just overbidding against ourselves. We'll see what happens in the coming days though.



Trey

Big moves

One of the biggest trades I can remember with Halladay going to Philly and Cliff Lee to Seattle. Rare to see two true aces swapped around like that. More important probably to the Cardinals was Boston signing Lackey and Mike Cameron. This is important because it puts the Red Sox out of the running for Matt Holliday. Right now, it seems like we might only be bidding against ourselves for Holliday, because no other team has stepped forward. The Yankees seem unlikely to do so having already added Granderson to the outfield. The only other possibilities seem to be the Mets and the Angels. Both have denied interest to this point though. The Mets have made an offer to Bay, and could get involved on Holliday, but they seem to think (and I believe rightly so) that Matt Holliday is a gap power hitter who would struggle with the spacious power alleys of Citi Field, whereas Bay is more of pull hitter who could hit homeruns there. The Angels I think are the team to be more wary of, though they seem to be more in need of starting pitching at this point than an outfielder and have publically said they are not after a big bat this offseason. After losing Lackey and Figgins, however, they may feel the need to do something big though. All in all, I feel much better about our prospects of signing Holliday at a reasonable rate than I did a few days ago, and Scott Boras has too feel a lot worse about getting his client a huge deal, so that's definitely a good thing.



-Trey

Winter Ramblings

Man, it's been a long time since anything has been posted on this blog. I have no excuse either, because there actually has been some interesting things happening in the Cardinal nation, I've just been too lazy to write about them. So let's play catch-up:

On the NL Cy Young Award: So did Carpenter and Wainwright steal votes from one another: yeah, probably, but it's also hard to really argue that one of them got for sure robbed. There were three equally deserving candidates. I would've gone with Wainwright for his body of work. He was a horse. Carp was justifiably punished I think for missing the first month of the season. Lincecum kinda was the easy choice. He had great numbers and was there the whole year for a winning team. Hard to argue with that.

On the NL MVP: Obviously, it would've been an all-time shock had Albert not won it. It's nice to see so many talk about him now as the hands-down best player the game and as a guy that will likely go down as the best right-handed hitter of all time.

On Matt Holliday: Though it seems that the Cardinals front office still holds-out hope of signing him, the fan base is starting to feel more realistically that we don't have much of a shot. Boras wants a Texiera-type deal for him. I can tell you now he won't get that, but something in the 6-7 year 120 million+ range seems likely from the Mets, the Red Sox or the Angels. One thing in our favor is that the Yankees don't seem to be in the hunt, and they would obviously up the the ante.

On other free-agent hitters: I certainly feel that re-signing DeRosa should be a priority. He has a lot of interest out there, but should still come cheaper that what we've been paying our 3B the last several years (Rolen, Glaus). As for other corner outfielders, it's tough sledding. It's doubtful we will be in on Jason Bay, and the best hitters other than him and Holliday are all probably on the downside of their careers (Damon, Dye, Vlad, etc.). My preference would be to maybe trade for someone like Dan Uggla and move Shu back to LF.

On the Brad Penny signing: Love this deal, and not just because Penny is from the Tulsa area like myself and John. First, it's a one year deal (no long-term commitment with Carp and Albert needed extensions in the near future). Second, the Cardinals made a great move by promising Penny that they would not offer salary arbitration after the season. This means he'll be highly motivated to have a great year to possibly earn himself a big money, multi-year deal the next offseason. Penny has great stuff, but motivation has been an issue with him in the past, so I like the structure of this deal. I think there is a good chance he'll replace Pineiro's production and then some. Does this also close the door on Smoltz? I don't think so. Smoltz was never a guy you'd look at to make 30+ starts, so we could still sign him to be a 5th starter/reliever hybrid.

On the rest of the offseason: The Cards still have quite a bit of cash to spend, but other than DeRosa and the unlikely event they sign Holliday, it's hard to see where the money can be put to use on the free agent market. You may see the bullpen bolstered, but not likely with a closer and at low cost (man, I would love to have had Billy Wagner, but the Braves beat us to the punch). I hope that means they'll be actively looking at trades, because the offense certainly needs some help. The starting pitching looks solid already at least, even if Smoltz doesn't come back. Right now, you'd have to still consider us the favorites in the NL central, but a lot can change before spring training starts.



-Trey

UCB Roundtable - Question for 10/28/09

Well, here is my question for the year-end roundtable. I jumped on recent news and asked:

Is hiring Mark McGwire as the new hitting coach the right move for the organization?

Here are the responses I received, starting with our very own John:

All the PED stuff aside, this seems like a great move. Big Mac is 11th all time in OPS. If that's not enough to make you a great candidate for a hitting coach, I don't know what is. Whether he's able to translate that into a good coach is another story. There are some hurdles: he's a lefty and he's got a bit of an unorthodox swing. However, as Trey pointed out, he's tight with some of the players and TLR. I also like hiring Cardinals.

Yet, taking the PED brouhaha into consideration it just leaves a slightly unpleasant aftertaste. I just don't know what I think of bringing on someone who not only used by repeatedly lied about his use. Perhaps a way to justify it is simply point to the pervasive use of it, and say, "we're trying to move on." I don't know. It seems oddly similar to when there was lots of talk about bringing Bonds on board. Sure, on paper it looks like a great move, but will it cost us our soul?

-CJ (The Cardinal Virtue)

Daniel, from c70 at the bat added:

I don't know that I'd say I like the move, but I at least understand it and think it's a fine move to make.

I do think one of the side benefits to this is that it is going to make McGwire talk about his past, as it were. I know that Mike and Nick disagreed with me last night on the radio show, but I don't think McGwire takes himself out of the shadows and puts himself into the spotlight unless he's ready to deal with the issue.

It's not going to go away. Unless he gives a definitive statement and answers questions, it's going to follow him all year long. If he does do that, then he can more legitimately say, "Guys, I've answered that and I'm not talking about it again."

If he wants to be an effective hitting coach and not just a sideshow, he's got to get past the issue, at least for reasonable people.

As an actual coach, I'm interested to see what he can bring to the table. I know Schumaker's done wonders from working with him, but you also have some that still struggled after his instruction. We'll see what he can do with full-time access to players.

Jay Tierney, from Inside Pulse had this to say:

I've thought of a few things about this:

A. It's a way to try to lure Holliday back. I've heard he's close with McGwire, so what better way to get the top free agent hitter back than hiring him as a coach.

B. LaRussa is trying to get McGwire back in the spot light to clean up his image. Tony firmly believes that he'll be worth the media circus and this may help get Big Mac in the HOF. If it works, it'll also solidify LaRussa's resume. If it doesn't, it's written off as another stunt that LaRussa attempted (a la hitting the pitcher 8th, his funky rotation antics in Oakland, etc).

McRae was gone, there was no doubt about that. Like any hiring, there are good points and bad points: McGwire has worked well with hitters in the off-season (Skip being the best example), but he's also not helped some too (Chris Duncan anyone?). Yes, his OPS is high, but his batting average was only .263.

If McGwire can make it through all the questions, I think it'll be a good risk to see what he can do as the hitting coach.

Michael Reihn, from Whiteyball, finished the discussion with these words:

Mark McGwire is proven to be one of the top hitting coaches on the market. Should the Cardinals hire him? Will there be a fan backlash?

McGwire must address the PED issues from the onset in order to lessen the media scrutiny he will face. Many star players have moved past the issue to where it is a footnote (instead of the main byline) to their career. This is important to his image, his hall of fame chances and (less importantly) my opinion of him. Without addressing the issue, he could easily become a distraction to the team and a target for negative media. If he puts everything behind him, he could be a major coup for this team.

The Cardinals aren’t the first team to try to hire McGwire as a hitting coach and he isn’t some novelty act. He has a proven history of helping players become better hitters and could bring a lot to a team. His credentials are numerous and intriguing. Yes, he was a hall of fame caliber hitter, but a great hitter does not always translate into a great hitting coach (Ted Williams, for example). When people site his career as why he will/or won’t be a good hitting coach they are (respectfully) missing the point.

From what I gather, he brings many admirable qualities to the position. He supposedly has an eye for video and how it translates to each hitter, a varied approach to driving the ball (home run hitters and singles hitters), plate discipline teachings and a respect (from players) that may even be greater than Tony La Russa. You won’t see hitters tuning him out like they did McRae last year.

The fan backlash is overstated by the media (and bloggers). If you read the comment sections on the post dispatch, you would think that McGwire is going to have a rough time with the fans. What is amazing to me is how unrepresentative this form of media is to the masses. Most of the people that comment are the people that feel strongly against him being on the team. The Post Dispatch ran a poll online and found over 80% of the people were in favor of the move.

McGwire’s “celebrity” has its disadvantages, but there is a positive side. He has an added value of taking pressure off of Pujols. For the first time in many years, Albert will not be the main focus of sportswriters during spring training. This can only help our best hitter and make it easier for him to prepare.

The Cardinals are taking a chance on Big Mac, but winning is the main objective. He may have the ability to help them do this. After their first round flameout from last year, what do they have to lose?

Sincerely,

Michael Riehn

My own thoughts? I think it all comes down to team performance. Unless Big Mac comes completely clean before the season starts, he is going to be a distraction, but there is a very good chance he could improve our hitters. I big criticism of McRae was that he preached a free-swinging style. The Cards have been among the worst in the majors at drawing walks the last few years, especially if you take Albert out of the equation. Another area I see a need for improvement is hitting with runners in scoring position. If we improve under these two areas with McGwire, we'll win more games, and whatever distractions there are will be worth it. Maybe it's morally corrupt of me to think of it in such a bottom-line way, but that's the way I view baseball. Anyway, I appreciate everyone who participated. There is only a couple of more days left in the roundtable, so I hope everyone checks them out! Till next season......

Trey

Bill DeWitt III on UCB Radio Hour--Tonight!

Cardinal President Bill DeWitt III will be on with Dan, Nick and Mike! Tonight 6:30EST 5:30CST 11:30GMT!

-CJ